Study finds 64% of incremental conversions driven by Meta are from new to brand customers.
Executive Summary
Proving the incremental value of each marketing dollar has become one of the hardest - and most important - questions in advertising.
The shift in the digital landscape driven by evolving privacy regulations, automation, and reliance on platform-reported metrics has amplified the need for causal measurement to prove the value of marketing spend.
This study, conducted by Measured, analyzes the incremental performance of Meta technologies using a consistent, platform-agnostic testing framework.
The analysis of over 10,000 campaigns across North American advertisers reveals that Meta technologies drives substantial, measurable incremental growth, with particularly strong performance in driving net new customer acquisition compared to peers.
The Critical Role of Incrementality
Traditional attribution models, including last-click, platform-reported, and traditional Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM), often misreport media performance by assigning credit to touchpoints that may not have genuinely caused an action. With consumer journeys stretching across platforms and devices from mobile to CTV to search to in-store and beyond, isolating the causal impact of media investment is paramount.
Incrementality testing addresses this challenge by answering the core question:
“How many sales or conversions would not have happened without this media?”
By utilizing geo-based test-vs-control frameworks, incrementality delivers a transparent and independent measure of true performance, providing the most accurate lens for evaluating platform contributions to business growth.
Key Findings from the Analysis:
The following findings reflect median incremental and marginal incremental performance across all analyzed campaigns, with select cohort-level breakdowns by revenue scale and vertical. Results are derived from Measured's triangulation methodology leveraging geo-based test-vs-control experiments and agile always on MMM and represent causal, platform-agnostic measurement.
- Competitive Incremental ROAS: Across all analyzed campaigns, Meta technologies delivered a median Incremental Return on Ad Spend (iROAS) of $2.16, showing strong performance compared to other platforms across the ecosystem.
- New Customer Acquisition: A notable 64% of Meta technologies’ incremental conversions were from new customers, highlighting its role in driving net-new demand.
- Efficiency in New Customer Acquisition: Meta technologies showed an iROAS 2.3x higher in driving new customer KPIs compared to Search.
- Stronger New Customer Acquisition in Scaled Cohorts: Among brands spending more than $50M in media spend, Meta showed a 46% higher iROAS in driving new customer KPIs compared to search.
- Vertical and Revenue-Level Variation: Performance varied by category and scale, with stronger marginal efficiency appearing in higher-revenue, higher-AOV, and acquisition-focused environments.
These findings underscore the value of continuous, causal measurement in evaluating media performance. Because incremental efficiency varies by vertical, revenue scale, and spend level, advertisers are best served by establishing a baseline of realized performance (iROAS) and pairing it with marginal analysis (mIROAS) to inform allocation decisions - rather than relying on platform-reported metrics or historical spend patterns alone.
Why This Matters for Advertisers
Incrementality provides the most accurate metric for defining platform accountability and identifying investment opportunities.
The results of this study suggest that marketers should:
- Expand Measurement Beyond Attribution: Only incrementality reveals true causal impact and diminishing returns.
- Evaluate Both Realized and Marginal Efficiency: iROAS validates performance; miROAS informs scaling decisions.
- Continuously Test Investment Allocation: Especially in scaled enterprise environments, marginal efficiency signals may differ from historical allocation patterns.
- Recognize the Role of Demand Expansion: High new-customer contribution reinforces Meta’s role in supporting growth objectives.
When performance accountability is defined by incrementality, marketers can better align budget allocation with both realized performance and future growth potential.
Methodology: Measuring Causal Impact
This independent study by Measured analyzed over 10,000 campaigns run in 2025 across key verticals, including ecommerce, retail, CPG, technology, financial services, entertainment, and gaming, across the U.S. and Canada.
All results were derived from Measured’s Geo Testing technology, which uses:
- Test Markets: Markets where spend is either eliminated or significantly increased during the experiment period.
- Anchor Markets (Exposed): Markets where media investment continues normally.
- Counterfactual Model: A machine-learning model predicts expected sales in the Test Markets, isolating non-media variables (e.g., two years of daily transaction history, control factors, etc).
- Incremental Lift Calculation: The difference between predicted and observed sales in the test markets represents the causal, incremental contribution of the media.
Performance was evaluated using median values across advertisers to minimize the influence of outliers and represent typical performance.
Analysis of Incremental Performance
1. Contribution to New Customer Growth
The analysis revealed that 64% of Meta technologies’ incremental conversions were attributed to new or reactivated customers. In driving new customer KPIs, Meta technologies showed an iROAS 2.3x higher than search.
Among brands with more than $50M in annual media spend, Meta showed a 46% higher iROAS in driving new customer KPIs compared to search, highlighting efficiency for larger spending brands.
This contribution highlights Meta technologies’ role in expanding demand and acquiring customers earlier in the decision journey - particularly relevant for brands prioritizing growth and customer expansion.
Summary
Across industries, Meta technologies drives significant incremental outcomes, with performance broadly comparable to search at the aggregate level.
Meta shows a highly efficient impact in driving new customer KPIs, especially in scaled environments with higher media spend and revenue.
When evaluated through both realized incremental performance (iROAS) and next-dollar efficiency (mIROAS), Meta technologies demonstrates competitive efficiency today and stronger marginal productivity in select cohorts.
About This Study
This research was conducted by Measured, an independent incrementality measurement company.
The findings are based on a meta-analysis of 2025 U.S. and Canada campaigns across Meta and Search, representing 200+ advertisers across key verticals such as retail/D2C, financial services, B2B, CPG, beauty, travel and others.
All results reflect median incremental performance metrics (iROAS, iCPO, mIROAS) derived from validated MMMs calibrated by test-vs-control experiments.