Marketers need adaptable measurement capabilities to succeed in an increasingly competitive landscape. We’re quickly approaching the BFCM 2024 and the holiday season, and this year, it’s made even more complicated by the ongoing election season. It's more important than ever for marketers to navigate this time with tact and care and have a flexible testing capability to help you accurately measure and understand your media’s performance.
The Importance of BFCM 2024 for Brands
Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2023 saw record highs in sales.
- Consumers broke an ecommerce record and spent a total of $12.4 billion on Cyber Monday last year, with apparel leading the charge (Adobe Analytics)
- Cyber week overall saw spending grow to $38 billion, up 7.8% YoY (Adobe Analytics)
- Shoppers were particularly responsive to early discounts and promotions, causing a surge in spending during October 2023 (Experian)
These statistics prove that your BFCM 2024 plan should already be well underway (just one week left till October), but the ongoing election season adds a significant complication, particularly when measuring the performance of your ads.
Don't underestimate the effect of political ads; they can notably impact campaign costs and audience behavior, requiring brands to be particularly strategic with their paid media budgets this year.
Challenges of Running Ads and Testing This Year
The shortened holiday period this year, caused by a late Thanksgiving, leaves brands with five fewer shopping days before Christmas than last year. Every day counts, and this compressed peak season will create an exceptionally crowded and competitive landscape for advertisers.
The election season means messaging and audience sentiment can change very quickly. Accurately measuring your own ad campaign performance in this highly dynamic environment is trickier than usual.
The election may also be the reason Amazon is pushing the holiday rush earlier with their Prime Day deals, and retailers such as Best Buy are featuring exclusive sales as early as September; it’s wise for brands to grab consumers’ attention before it moves to the polls.
Understanding the Election Season Impact
Election seasons bring a surge in political ad spending. This drives up ad costs and makes it challenging for brands to compete for consumer attention, as traditional paid advertising might deliver less bang for your buck.
So, how can marketers get an accurate read on performance during this tricky season? The answer is simple: Geo-testing. But remember, not all geo-testing is made equal, and special capabilities are required if you want to test without contamination and get confident results you can act on.
Swing States and Geo-Testing Flexibility
This year, keep a close eye on Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia — the key swing states.
The sheer volume of political campaigns vying for voter attention in swing states, in particular, can cause your test result data to be skewed.
While this is a factor to keep in mind for any state at this time of year, it’s vital for swing states because the flood of political messaging increases advertising costs (CPMs), which means their data won't resemble the other states and can mislead you if included in the test.
To maintain accuracy, consider excluding these swing states from your testing entirely. If you do decide to update your media strategy to avoid the swing states, remember that you'll need a geo-design tool that can flexibly adapt without a hitch.
This is why it's important to consider the impact of political advertising on your testing initiatives. Although limited to a handful of states, you'll need a geo-testing product that's both flexible and optimized to the task at hand. Your geo-testing tool’s flexibility should help update your marketing strategy to avoid swing states from your test design.
However, keep in mind that you still need to apply the results of your geo test to your national program with confidence. That’s why test designs that require the smallest geographic footprint necessary are the best option (as opposed to those that test on half the country).
Conclusion
As marketers, we thrive on understanding the intricacies of consumer behavior, evolving market dynamics, and shifting trends. Prime Day is right around the corner, with BFCM 2024 following closely. While the election year and shorter peak period can make it more challenging to stand out and more imperative to start planning early, brands that successfully manage to run geo tests and optimize their marketing efforts will reap substantial rewards. If you’re interested in learning more about geo-testing, download our guide here.
To see if Measured’s geo tests, which require holding out less than 10% of the country and still provide statistically conclusive results, are the right solution for you, schedule a demo today.